I’ve been leading some scenario planning as part of a short, focused strategy project with a client. The executive team want to understand how their business can win in the post-crisis world and get to grips with the scale of the challenge ahead.

The four scenarios we’ve developed set out different ways both the pandemic and the economic response by governments might play out, and how those possible futures could affect the business and its markets. No scenario is attractive, but some are uglier than others.

The initial response from some members of the executive team was to pick a scenario they like most and to build the strategic response around that particular future. That’s understandable, but misguided.

The real answer is we don’t know which scenario is most likely, and so we must give each of them equal attention. As a result, by examining and discussing each scenario in detail, the team has been able to identify a series of longer-term actions that it believes will improve the company’s fortunes whichever future materialises.

The coronavirus crisis has presented business leaders with some of the toughest challenges of their careers. Focusing on the immediate, burning issues is critical. But it is not enough. History tells us that the companies that perform the strongest in the years following a recession are those that continued to make focused investments and longer-term strategic moves during the downturn.

How could you use scenario planning to help you and your team find a way to not only survive the crisis but to thrive in the years that follow?

Off The Record: Livin’ In The Future by Bruce Springsteen

Don’t worry, darlin’

No baby, don’t you fret

We’re livin’ in the future

And none of this has happened yet

Succeeding Beyond The Coronavirus Pandemic

If you want to succeed in the post-COVID world you need to plan and act fast now to reshape your business to your new realities and opportunities. This white paper sets out the new business realities arising from the coronavirus pandemic and gives you a clear, 5-step process to reshape your strategy and accelerate your success as we come out of the crisis.

© Stuart Cross 2020. All rights reserved.